VusionGroup opened at 152 this morning. Closed at 113.4. That's a 25.4% drop in one session. The signal says sell, and I'm not arguing with it.
The Numbers That Matter
RSI sits at 30.24 — technically oversold territory. Ultimate Oscillator at 30.78 stays neutral. Parabolic SAR flashes strong buy at 110.9, which is basically today's one-month low. So you've got conflicting signals, but the moving averages tell a clearer story.
SMA 10 is at 124.83. SMA 25 at 131.64. SMA 100 way up at 195.88. All three show strong sell. When short, medium, and long-term averages all point down, you're not catching a dip — you're catching a falling knife.
ATR percentage at 7.4437 means high volatility. This stock moves. A lot. The all-time high was 278. We're trading at 113.4 now. That's a 59% decline from peak. People calling this a bargain need to explain why the averages haven't turned yet.
Why I'm Not Buying This Dip
Oversold doesn't mean reversal. RSI can stay below 30 for weeks in a real downtrend. I've seen it happen. The buy signal from Parabolic SAR at 110.9 looks tempting — it's just 2.5 points below current price. But that same indicator will flip back to sell the moment price drops another three points.
The Demark pivot gives resistance at 137.15 and support at 124.85. We're already below support. The next natural floor? The one-month low at 110.9, which we hit today. After that, there's nothing on this chart to stop the slide except hope.
I checked the live stock market prices for similar patterns in other names. High volatility plus strong sell from all moving averages usually means more downside before any bounce. Not always, but often enough that I won't bet against it.
What the Signal Score Actually Means
Signal score at -50.6 with a strong trend classification. That's not a mild correction — that's a directional move with conviction. The price action reads bullish, which confuses people. How is price action bullish when the stock dropped 25% today?
Here's what I think: the bullish price action tag probably refers to intraday behavior after the initial drop. Maybe it bounced off 110.9 and held above it for a few hours. That's not the same as a bullish setup for tomorrow. Context matters.
Candle pattern shows normal, which means no dramatic reversal signals like hammer or engulfing. Just a straight red day. Sometimes the most dangerous setups are the boring ones — no panic, no climax, just steady selling.
Where This Goes Next
If 110.9 breaks, I'd watch for 100 as a psychological level. Round numbers act as temporary support even when fundamentals don't justify it. But I'm not going to pretend I know where the bottom is. The data doesn't tell me that.
What the data does tell me: moving averages are falling, volatility is high, and the trend is strong to the downside. The only bullish element here is RSI signaling oversold, and that's not enough to override three strong sell signals from SMAs.
I've traded setups like this before. Sometimes you get a bounce that lasts two days, then it rolls over again. The bounce traders make 8%, the trend followers avoid a 40% loss. I know which side I'd rather be on.
One Thing Nobody's Asking
Why did it open at 152 and close at 113.4? That's not a gradual slide — that's a gap or a news event. The data doesn't specify what caused it, but moves this size don't happen on low volume or casual selling.
When stocks gap down this hard, the first bounce usually fails. Not always, but the stats favor it. You get bargain hunters who think they're smart, then they're underwater by end of week. I've been that guy before. It's not fun.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.24 | Buy |
| SMA 10 | 124.83 | Strong Sell |
| SMA 25 | 131.64 | Strong Sell |
| SMA 100 | 195.88 | Strong Sell |
| Parabolic SAR | 110.9 | Strong Buy |
If you're tracking other high-volatility names, the free stock market widget lets you monitor multiple tickers without refreshing a dozen tabs. I keep mine on a second screen during trading hours.
My Take
I'm bearish until the SMA 10 crosses back above SMA 25. That's my line. Doesn't matter if RSI hits 25 or Parabolic SAR screams buy. Moving averages don't lie about trend direction — they lag, sure, but they don't lie.
VusionGroup price today is 113.4, and the VusionGroup forecast for the next few sessions is more downside unless something changes fast. High ATR means big moves in both directions, so yeah, we could see a 15% bounce tomorrow. Doesn't make it a buy. Makes it a trade for people with tight stops and fast reflexes.
The VusionGroup analysis I'm seeing on Fxpricing Blog aligns with my view — wait for confirmation, don't try to be a hero. The signal score at -50.6 is not a mild warning. It's a clear directional call, and fighting it costs money.
Will VusionGroup hit 100 before it hits 130? I don't know. But the probabilities favor more downside based on what's in front of me right now. That's enough
