The pair closed just shy of 92.7, inching up 0.37% from the open at 92.304. That sounds fine until you realize it's grinding into resistance like a tired runner hitting a wall.
92.8815. That's the SMA 25 sitting right above current price. It's not screaming sell, it's just sitting there neutral, but neutral at resistance is not bullish. The signal says buy, confidence is medium, score is 39.9. That's not conviction, that's a shrug.
The Parabolic SAR Problem
Parabolic SAR is at 94.2337 and it's screaming strong sell. That's almost two full figures above current price. When the SAR is that far overhead, it means the indicator sees the trend as down or stalling hard. The price would need to rip through 94.2 to flip that reading, and it's not even at 93 yet.
ADX is 22.4, marked as strong buy. ADX doesn't tell you direction, it tells you trend strength. 22.4 is weak. Under 25, most traders call it a range. So the "strong buy" label here is misleading — it just means there's some movement, not that the movement is bullish.
I've seen this setup before. You get a buy signal, a weak ADX, and a resistance level overhead. It rallies a bit, stalls, then reverses. Not every time, but enough that I don't trust it.
Where Support Actually Sits
Fibonacci pivot shows support at 92.0607, resistance at 92.6566. Current price is 92.646, which is basically sitting on R1. That's not where you want to enter a buy. You're already at the first resistance target.
The one-month low is 91.405, which is a full point lower. The one-month high is 94.974, so the range is wide. ATR percentage is 0.9995, labeled medium volatility. That's enough movement to swing you around but not enough to call it wild.
SMA 100 is at 89.759, miles below current price, and it's marked strong buy. That just means price is well above the longer average. It's confirmation of the six-month uptrend — forex rates show the pair is up 7.32% over six months. But that doesn't mean the rally continues from here.
The Signal Conflict
Buy signal. Bullish price action. But the Parabolic SAR says strong sell, the SMA 25 is neutral at resistance, and the ADX is barely registering a trend. That's not alignment, that's noise.
The pair opened at 92.304 and gained 0.37%. That's less than 35 pips. On Euro-Japanese Yen pairs, that's a sneeze. It's not breakout energy.
If you're already long from lower, fine. You're sitting on a six-month gain. But entering now? You're buying at resistance with weak trend confirmation and a major indicator flashing the opposite direction.
What I'd Watch
Can it break 92.8815? If it does and holds above, then the buy signal has a chance. If it taps it and rolls over, you're looking at a move back to 92.06 or lower. The Fibonacci support at 92.06 is thin — it's a pivot level, not a structural floor.
The Parabolic SAR won't flip unless price climbs and stays above 94.2. That's a big ask from a pair that's already stalling. ADX needs to push above 25 to confirm a real trend. Right now it's stuck in the mud.
I'm not shorting it here. The six-month trend is up, the SMA 100 is way below, and momentum hasn't fully died. But I'm not buying either. The setup is messy. Medium confidence, weak ADX, resistance overhead, and a strong sell from the SAR.
On Fxpricing Blog, we've covered setups like this before. The ones that grind into resistance with mixed signals usually disappoint. They either chop sideways or roll over. The clean moves happen when all the indicators line up, not when half say buy and half say sell.
So what happens if it breaks 92.88 and keeps going?
