Bitcoin closed at $64,943 today after opening near $67,600. Down almost 4%. The signal flipped to Strong Sell with a score of -64.2. That's not a gentle nudge—that's a wall.
I've been watching this play out for weeks. Every time price tries to hold above $67k, the sellers show up. Now we're sitting below both the 25-day SMA at $70,308 and the 200-day EMA at $92,050. That 200 EMA isn't just overhead resistance anymore. It's a reminder of where we were and how far we've fallen.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Signal score of -64.2 is brutal. I don't sugarcoat this stuff on Fxpricing Blog. When the math says sell, I say it. The price action indicator still reads bullish, which creates this weird tension—price structure looks okay on the candles, but every oscillator and moving average is screaming the opposite direction.
ATR sits at 3,076, which means volatility is ripping. That's a 4.5% reading on the ATR percentage. In a falling market, high volatility usually means sharper drops, not bounces. I've seen this movie before. It doesn't end with a V-shaped recovery.
The Ultimate Oscillator is neutral at 43.27. That's the only thing not picking a side. Everything else—SMA, EMA, overall signal—lines up bearish.
Where Support Might Show Up
Fibonacci pivot puts S1 at $67,276 and the pivot itself at $67,679. We already blew through both. The monthly low hit $59,977 recently, and that's the next logical floor if this keeps sliding. R1 sits at $68,082, which is now resistance instead of support.
- Current price: $64,943
- Fibonacci S1: $67,276
- Monthly low: $59,977
- 200 EMA: $92,050
That monthly low is only 7.6% below where we are right now. In crypto terms, that's a Tuesday. If sentiment turns uglier or if stocks wobble, sixty grand breaks fast.
Bollinger Bands and the Squeeze
Bollinger middle band matches the 25 SMA at $70,308. Price is sitting at 43.53% position within the bands, which means we're riding the lower half. Squeeze status is normal—no compression, no explosion setup. Just a steady drift lower.
I don't love trading Bitcoin when it's stuck in the bottom half of the bands with no catalyst in sight. You're basically hoping for a headline to bail you out, and that's not a strategy.
Performance Context
One-week performance shows a drop of 5.68%. That aligns with today's move—this isn't a one-day panic, it's a grind. We've been bleeding for over a week, and the momentum hasn't shifted. The all-time low was effectively zero back in the early days, so that's irrelevant. What matters is the recent range, and we're testing the lower boundary.
If you check live cryptocurrency prices, you'll see Bitcoin isn't alone. But it's leading the move down, which makes sense given its size and liquidity.
What I'm Watching Next
I'm not buying here. The signal is clear, the trend is ugly, and there's no technical evidence of a floor forming. Could we bounce? Sure. Will I bet on it? No.
The play for me is to wait for price to either break below $60k—which would confirm further downside toward $55k or lower—or reclaim $68k with volume and hold it for a few days. Right now, we're in the dead zone where neither bulls nor bears have conviction, but the weight of the moving averages is tipping it bearish.
ATR is high, which means stop losses get hit faster. If you're holding, tighten your risk. If you're thinking about entering, wait for a better setup. The Bitcoin price forecast for 2026 doesn't hinge on today's candle, but today's candle does tell you where the momentum lives right now—and it's not with the buyers.
I've been wrong before. I bought too early in late 2022 thinking we'd bottomed at $17k, and we chopped around for months. This feels similar. The signal is clear, the trend is clear, and I'm staying out until the data changes.
