Three hundred bucks. That's where JPM closed today, up a tenth of a percent from the open. Not exciting, not terrifying — just sitting there while every technical indicator I trust is flashing red.
The signal score is -50.2. That's a sell. Not a weak sell, not a "maybe wait" — a straight sell. I've been tracking this stock since it touched $291.38 a month ago, and I still don't like it here.
Moving Averages Don't Lie
SMA 10 is at $304.20. SMA 25 is at $307.23. EMA 100 sits at $307.71. Every single one of them is above current price, and every single one says strong sell. When all three major averages line up like this, I don't fight it.
You can argue momentum. You can say RSI at 43.2 isn't oversold yet. But moving averages are about context — where the stock has been, where institutions have positioned. Right now JPM is below every meaningful average, and that's a problem if you're looking to enter.
I've ignored this setup before. Bought AMD in 2023 when it was under its 100-day EMA because "valuations looked good". Lost 8% in three weeks. Learned my lesson.
The Parabolic SAR Problem
Parabolic SAR at $312.83 is another strong sell. That's $12 above current price. When PSAR is that far overhead, it acts like a ceiling — every rally attempt gets sold into. I've seen this pattern on Stock — Equities before, different names but same setup.
Stochastic K% at 33.87 says buy, which is the only bullish reading in this whole mess. But one oscillator against three moving averages and PSAR? I'm not taking that bet.
What The Numbers Actually Mean
Six-month performance is -0.58%. Basically flat. One-month low at $291.38. Fibonacci pivot puts resistance at $308.31 and support at $304.21. We're trading between those levels right now, which means dead money until something breaks.
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Signal Score | -50.2 | Sell |
| PSAR | 312.83 | Strong Sell |
| SMA 10 | 304.2 | Strong Sell |
| RSI | 43.2 | Neutral |
I looked at Stock — Nyse — Gs — Goldman Sachs Group Inc for comparison. Different setup entirely — GS has some bullish divergence that JPM doesn't. If I'm going into financials, I want cleaner entry points.
The Risk I'm Not Taking
Moderate trend, bullish price action, normal candle pattern. That's what the classification says. But classification doesn't override the signal. I've been burned on "bullish price action" when the underlying signal was negative. October 2024, bought a tech stock because "price action looked strong". Signal was -40. Dropped 11% in two weeks.
You can wait for confirmation. You can wait for RSI to break below 40, wait for price to crack that $291 support. Or you can just respect the sell signal and move on. There are 3,000+ stocks on Stock — Equities. JPM isn't the only game.
What I'd Actually Do Here
Nothing. I'm not shorting it — too much noise, trend is still moderate, not collapsing. I'm not buying it — signal score is -50.2 and every major average is overhead. If it drops to $291 or below and RSI hits oversold, maybe I'll look again. Maybe.
The real tell for me is that six-month performance. Negative half a percent while the broader market did what it did? That's weakness. Money has better places to be. I track this stuff on Fxpricing Blog because I got tired of pretending every stock is a "buy the dip" opportunity. Some dips keep dipping.
I'm sitting this one out until something changes. If you bought at $291 last month and you're up nine bucks, great — take profit and reassess. If you're thinking about entering now at three hundred dollars with a -50.2 signal, I'd wait. That's what I'm doing.
