212.024. That's the only number you need to know right now.
It's not just today's close for GBPJPY. It's a clean break above the open, a solid gain, and a price that sits comfortably above every major long-term average. The signal says Strong Buy, but the real story is in the distance traveled.
The Floor Has Been Raised
Look at where this pair was trading six months ago. To be at 212 now means a nearly 7% run. The one-month low was 207. That’s your recent danger zone, and it’s now five big figures below.
The moving averages tell you everything about the structural shift.
- SMA 200: 202.781
- EMA 200: 204.014
Price is trading a full ten yen above its 200-day simple average. That’s not a blip; it’s a regime change. The entire floor of the market has been ratcheted higher, and old support levels are now distant history.
Bullish, But With a Catch
The oscillators aren't screaming overbought yet. RSI is neutral at 56. That’s room to run. Stochastic is in buy territory but not extreme.
The MACD level is still negative, which might give pause to some pure momentum traders. But with price action bullish and the trend moderate, it often pays to listen to the primary trend—the one defined by those moving averages—over a lagging oscillator.
Today’s pivot sits at 209.896. First resistance? 210.776 based on Fibonacci levels. We blew past both.
The One Number That Changes Everything
Forget the all-time low of 116. It’s irrelevant. The number that frames every trade now is 202.781—the SMA-200.
As long as price holds above that line on any meaningful pullback, the path of least resistance is up. A break below it would invalidate this entire bullish structure and signal a much deeper correction is underway.
The confidence is high, the signal is strong, but no trend goes straight up forever.Check live forex rates for real-time context across other majors like EURJPY. This analysis comes from Fxpricing Blog data.
The setup is clear, but are you buying strength or waiting for a dip?
